If we think about it through backcasting, we can see that a big change has already started in 2014
On the other hand, making predictions for a year is difficult because we must use forecasting in a step-by-step fashion. Because it is the near future, we tend to predict it with the assumption that the past will continue in the same way. We do not consider unexpected events.
Anyone would consider something like an unexpected earthquake happening in the next 100 years. Short-term predictions are difficult because such unexpected events are difficult to consider. The complete failure of economic forecasts just before the Lehman Shock was because of this.
Such a tendency applies to predictions of an individual's year as well. In other words, we tend to make predictions with the assumption that past circumstances will continue and that nothing new will happen.
What we need in order to dispel this harmful effect is an approach of backcasting from the future. This is the method of imagining the distant future and going from there to think about what should be done in 2014. In this case, it is possible to imagine the major earthquake that will almost certainly occur in the next 100 years, and even to prepare for it. It becomes possible to include very unexpected events.
For example, in my case, I imagine developing a business overseas in the future. I am thinking that I want to fulfill the role of introducing other countries to the methods based in Japanese culture. When I backcast from this kind of future, it becomes obvious what I should do. (Such as learning English and transmitting information overseas.)
If you are thinking it seems like there will be no promising new developments in 2014, you ought to give this a try. From the perspective of further in the future, even a year that seems uneventful might include predictive events or the beginning of preparations for something.
Expand our Imagination during this Relaxing New Year's Holidays
It is quite difficult to make a prediction of the year. For example, predictions regarding international disputes changes drastically by small and minor incidents. Even for the economy, it is hard to assess the impact of the consumption tax in Japan hike as it is often hard to conclude whether it will have a minimum impact or a large impact.
How about if we try extending the single year period to a three year period? If it is for a three-year period, the individual impacts of any single event will be minimized on a macro scale. This goes the same for a five-year period. If it is a ten-year period, it will be easier to make predictions as we will be observing long-term trends instead.
In other words, for predictions of a single year period, individual events are much more likely to have greater impacts, resulting in trends deviating from our initial predictions. Once we extend the observation period however, impacts of individual events are reduced and hence we are able to make a much more accurate prediction rather than just a rough prediction.
Speaking of which, it is also important that we not only think about our aspirations for the year ahead on New Year's Day, but also the outlook and flow for the next three years ahead.
This kind of vision however, cannot be seen in our daily life. So I guess it might be good for us to expand our imagination during this relaxing New Year's holidays.
